I saw an interesting speech by James Lindsay to the EU parliament where he tried to draw all the threads of the culture war together and call it marxism. One of the main points he was trying to make was that "woke" was a movement by "them" that was covert marxism with an American spin. The core idea was that marxism has "adapted" and is now going to attack America and Europe.
It was a really well constructed speech but his argument had a bunch of flaws.
The first was that there was a "THEY". Some coordinating authority or centrality to the effort. I think the truth is only in the minds of the people who feel under attack. Its like someone has a feeling of vulnerability and suddenly they invent a boogie man to blame it on. It grows in their imagination and they give it a face built out of all their worst fears and all the bad stories that they have ever heard and it becomes the stuff of nightmares. They can't un-see it... because its their personal monster.
I would argue that this whole shitstorm is not coordinated (honestly suprising ... but I will get to that). Its an emergent set of patterns that are emerging in many places, and communication technology is allowing them to cross fertilise ideas and strategies.
Mobs form because there are the elements of a mob already present and some situation or events bring them together and the mob dynamics build.
At some point someone (a politician or something that walks and talks like one) is going to clamber to the front of the mob and retcon a false narrative over the mob that gives it legitimacy and authority to do what they want. But until that happens, its just a mob waiting to happen.
The question is rightly, why is there a mob waiting to happen?
I think the dirty secret is that there is always a mob waiting to happen, even in the most perfect of societies. I think this is one of the secrets that the current chineese government has validly identified and seeks to counter by always being so concerned about public stability and calm. As the inheritors of the revolution, they know very well that people will form a mob and once that dynamic gets going, there is going to be a few nails getting hammered.
So, why a mob? What is the inherent characteristics of a mob that is so... human?
Anonymity!
Anonymity is one of those weird social moments that change people. For someone who does not experience anonymity very much or at all, its habitual to always have their social face on. They act as though people who matter are watching! They act as though there is consequence to their actions!
This is generally true enough that it keeps most people in check. They moderate their behaviour to the standard they have been taught/conditioned and has worked successfully in their context.
Then give them a sneak peek of anonymity... and usually nothing happens. It takes a long time for conditioning to fall away. However, its interesting how people seek anonymity and deal with it.
People go traveling and on holidays to "go somewhere new". They move house and jobs to "start a fresh". And when they arrive they are anonymous. No one knows them, they have no identity and can be "who they want to be". (Except for local law and customs... etc) So sometimes they "go a little crazy" or "act out". Try watching a show like "Banged up Abroad" or any of the stories about tourists doing silly things in distant lands. They think they have found a hack that will let them act without consequence on their identity "back home".
Also consider people in an existing society who are "invisible" and without distinct identity. They can do things that others cannot and the risk/reward ratio is substantially different.
So the question is, what do people do when they are anonymous?
Explore. Depending on how complete their conditioning is, they may continue doing the same habitual things or they might not. If the conditioning is incomplete, they will start to "try new things". Explore opportunities that they perceive in the environment. There is no "reason" not to. They can stay in bed all day... or eat toast with their fingers. Like children in a new place they will explore and test their boundaries. This is basic human survival skills... figure out where the good stuff is, figure out whats a threat... get comfortable. Repeat.
However, people with "baggage" also want to unload. This might be fast or slow, it might be positive or negative. People let out their issues in different ways. If the opportunity arises, they may let out stuff that they have kept repressed for a long time. Repression takes energy and chips away at their wellbeing over time,...so this can be very confronting to release for the individual. Nothing like letting go of personal hygiene.
The point of a mob however, is that the mob forms around an event or situation. The situation has an emotional loading inherent. Where this is a positive situation, the mood of the mob will be positive and re-inforce that. Where the mood is negative or can be turned negative, the dynamic will escalate the negativity.
So, if you are a revolutionary and you want to do some casual destruction, find a group of people with any sort of issue and use that to form the mob. If you can get the mob to form, then you can harness the energy of the mob and turn its attention on a target you can link to the grievance. The more vague the grievance, the more people will self-adopt your description to fit their individual situation. They will start to recruit more people to the mob and every one of them will choose to believe that the mob is somehow on their side.
The feeling of belonging.
A good mob feels like its on your side. When life has got you down and a bunch of people seem to all be commiserating with you about your particular problem... it can feel good. Finally your being recognized. You have shared problems. The weight is lifted a little. Vague promises are told (often by the individual to themselves). Excitement and euphoria quickly follow. People will do all sorts of things to keep that feeling going. Belonging and meaning are very attractive when you have been starved of those feelings.
If you look around at any group, you will always find someone who does not feel like they belong or don't really have a place (or especially don't have a winning place). Every pile of humanity has people at the bottom.
So all you need is a group of people who feel a bit dissatisfied with their lot and a situation that they can rally around and a few loud voices to egg them on. Now pick a topic they have in common and talk about that, once they agree, pick an enemy and blame them for the topic. Ta da! Mob creation 101.
Now lets look at "Activists". These are the "loud voice" element. They are the self-elected "leaders" and "Spokes-people". They are the ones who chant the message and set the tone. They are always near the front of the mob, but not in the front row where the cannon fodder stand. (That's where the truly stupid gather)
The interesting thing about "Activists" is that they become the leaders of the mob. And eventually, they have to figure out what to do with the mob.
During a revolution a bloodthirsty mob is a very handy thing for someone who wants to change the world. They can be used in all sorts of ways. But eventually the situation goes from revolution, to starvation and people have to start putting food on the table again. Even revolutionaries like eating.
So the bit after the revolution always has some sort of "disposal" process for the mob. Look back through history, there are very few bloodthirsty mobs that have been successfully turned into a peaceful population. This is because the very nature of a bloodthirsty mob is that it gets a taste for the darker aspects of life. This is very hard to turn off. The people who self select into the most extreem elements of the mob tend to not want it to end. This is their moment, suddenly it all feels good. Why would they stop and go back to a menial job?
So after the revolution, the mob either gets liquidated or scattered (and quietly liquidated) or hopefully just dies during the revolution... one way or the other, the problem gets solved.
The activists however, are the mouthpeices and survivors. They are the ones who are cunning enough to get to the front of the mob and give it guidance. After the revolution, they are the ones who the mob looks to for organisation as they have been doing that up till now. Think of it as a battle field promotion based on competence.
In the even that the activists are a positive group, they go on to form a positive society. In the even they are carrying some unhealthy traits (paranoia, narcissism, greed, lust etc) then they form the society in their image.
Again, history provides us with endless examples.
Why is any of this new? Well, clearly its not. The only new thing is the context that the revolution is currently being fought in.
The US has not had a revolution in some time... nearly 4 years or so.
The interesting thing about a democracy is that the cyclical nature of the election cycle tends to let the mobs form and dissipate their energy every few years. I think this is actually the reason why democracies last so long rather than anything to do with votes or rights. The fact that they go through a small controlled revolution a few times a decade lets most people work through this cycle enough times that they get sick of it and realise that they are not going to get their problems solved this way. Theoretically, each election results in some redistribution of power and resources and life goes on.
The problem comes when the election cycle is corrupt and constantly reinforce the inequity and failure of the society. This lets the unresolved grievances build up and makes the ground fertile for anyone to do a bit of recreational mob building.
Another thing that history tells us is that corrupt societies where there is a lot of difference between those who have and those who have not tend to be very ripe for revolution. Look at every monarchy or aristocracy ever. They only existed as long as they could keep their populations divided and powerless. Once some mob formed and started to self-organize, and a few random mouthpieces popped up and agreed on some vague ideas, it was on.
I don't think its hard to see the seeds of discontent in a number of the current democratic countries in the "west" at the moment.
There is a lot of people who are feeling left out and rejected in society, ironically they are often wealthy and succsesful in comparision with their ancestors. But humans will human.
Now look at the mouthpieces who are trying to unite the mobs. Look at the "common themese" they are using to pull the mobs together. Look at the really vague narratives of "what comes next". Notice any patterns?
Same strategies, same techniques. Same hacks that have always worked.
Coming back to the speech by James Lindsay. I think the main mistake he is making is that he thinks this is a marxist revolutionary thing. It's not marxist, its just revolutionary.
These are the same emergent strategies that have worked in every revolution ever.
Hey kids don't like the status quo? You angry about stuff? Lets criticize the old way because that's where the stuff comes from. Now lets reform the world!
There are endless variations on this patterns but they all have the same basic format. Mob + mouthpiece. The mob will self form when the social pyramid gets too deep and the top forgets about the bottom. The mouthpieces are always around because stupidity is not evenly distributed.
I think the most amazing thing at the moment is just how many different mobs are in the formation stage in the US at the moment. There are so many different grievance groups who have been magnified into being by technology. All of them are being horrible to each other at the same time and fighting for ascendancy. The range of shouty mouthpieces who are self-electing to be the brains of the operation is also quite impressive. I think its been clear to everyone for a long time that the final element is long overdue for revolution. The top of the pyramid has completely lost touch with the reality of the bottom.
I tend to think that this is the prime reason we are seeing all this bubbling up. I am certainly not the first commentard to point out this, so its not particularly hard to spot. But like any slowly collapsing structure, there is not really any way to stop it. A phrase always comes back to me... "Seeds of its own destruction". There is a certain inevitability about the whole thing. Some sort of historical renewal that was always going to happen.
The fun thing to remember is that this is not the first time this has bubbled up in the US. There have always been some pretty big scars in that culture to exploit. And there is never a shortage of shouty mouthpieces who are willing to take a run at the big chair... so perhaps its just going to keep going until they either get so broken down that someone keeps them down or just the wheel will turn again and off they go.
I strongly think that the difference between a revolution and a non-revolution is probably leadership. They have had a run of bad luck with a succession of weak leaders and corruption of their institutions that has chipped away at the faith and ability to move forward. Now they just seem to be doing self-destructive circle work as they chew their own legs off to try to get away from themselves. Anyway, renewal brings hope... come the man, come the day... something or other.
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